Uzbekistan has revised its natural gas production targets downward through 2029, according to a draft update of the Uzbekistan–2030 Strategy. The document projects a continued decline in gas output over the coming years, reflecting more cautious expectations for the sector.
Over the five-year period from 2026 to 2030, total natural gas production is expected to exceed 186.8 billion cubic meters. By 2030, annual output is planned at 38.7 billion cubic meters. This represents a sharp reduction from the previous strategy approved in September 2023, which set a target of 62 billion cubic meters — a cut of more than one-third.
According to Uzbekistan’s National Statistics Committee, gas production totaled 38.9 billion cubic meters in the first 11 months of the current year, marking a 5.1 percent decline year on year. For the full year 2024, output reached nearly 44.6 billion cubic meters.
The downward trend is expected to continue in the medium term. Gas production is forecast to fall to 37.9 billion cubic meters in 2026, then to 35.6 billion cubic meters in 2027, a decrease of 6 percent. In 2028, output is projected to decline further to 33.4 billion cubic meters, down 6.1 percent.
A temporary rebound is anticipated in 2029, when production is expected to increase by 23.3 percent year on year to 41.2 billion cubic meters. However, this recovery is not expected to last, as output is projected to drop again by more than 6 percent in 2030.
Responsibility for achieving the revised gas production targets has been assigned to Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Energy and the state-owned company Uzbekneftegaz.
Over the past four years, Uzbekistan’s gas production has fallen by 21.7 percent. The strategy document attributes this decline to weaknesses in strategic planning and an overemphasis on short-term goals, which have hindered the achievement of long-term results.
In mid-December, Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov stated that Uzbekistan aims to halt the decline in natural gas production in 2026 by commissioning new gas fields in the Karakalpakstan region.