Venezuela’s oil production has been severely affected in recent decades by chronic underinvestment, mismanagement, and U.S. sanctions. At roughly one million barrels per day, the country currently accounts for less than 1% of global oil supply.
Chevron, which represents about one-fifth of Venezuela’s total output, said it expects to bolster production by building on its existing operations in the country. Exxon, meanwhile, said it is preparing to send a technical team in the coming weeks to assess conditions on the ground.
Spain’s Repsol, which currently produces around 45,000 barrels per day, said it sees a pathway to tripling its output in Venezuela over the next few years if the right conditions are put in place.
Executives at other companies also said that Donald Trump’s promises of change could help encourage investment, and that they are hoping to seize the current opportunity.
“We are ready to go to Venezuela,” said Bill Armstrong, head of an independent oil and gas drilling company. “In real estate terms, it is prime real estate.”
Analysts, however, caution that meaningfully increasing oil production would require substantial effort, time, and capital.
“They are being as polite as humanly possible and as supportive as they can be, without committing actual dollars,” said David Goldwyn, president of energy consultancy Goldwyn Global Strategies and a former U.S. State Department special envoy for international energy affairs.
According to Goldwyn, Exxon and Shell are “not going to invest single-digit billions of dollars, much less tens of billions,” without guarantees of physical security, legal certainty, and a competitive fiscal framework.
“From an industry point of view, it’s not really welcome,” he said. “The conditions are just not right.”
While smaller companies may be more willing to enter the market and help boost Venezuela’s oil production over the next year, Goldwyn said such investments would likely be in the range of $50 million — far below the “fantastical” $100 billion figure floated by Donald Trump.
Rystad Energy estimates that Venezuela would need between $8 billion and $9 billion in new investment every year for production to triple by 2040.
Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, said Trump’s suggested $100 billion investment could have a major impact on output — if it were to materialize.
However, Galimberti noted that companies would only invest at that scale with subsidies and long-term political stability. He added that Americans should not expect the situation in Venezuela to lower oil prices anytime soon.
“It’s going to be difficult to see big commitments before we have a fully stabilized political situation, and when that happens is anybody’s guess,” he said.
Source: International media reports and energy industry analysis (specific source not specified).