Nvidia’s Share in China’s AI Accelerator Market Could Drop from 66% to 8%, Analysts Predict

Nvidia’s dominance in China’s artificial intelligence accelerator market may decline dramatically over the coming years. According to analysts at Bernstein, cited by Nikkei, the company’s market share could fall from 66% to just 8%, as Chinese manufacturers increasingly replace foreign suppliers.

The analysts attribute this projected shift primarily to the rapid development of domestic AI chips, combined with ongoing restrictions on the supply of advanced accelerators to China. As a result, local vendors are expected to satisfy up to 80% of China’s internal demand for AI acceleration hardware.

Clarifying What “Market Share” Means

It is important to clarify what market share is being discussed, as Nvidia recently stated that its share of the Chinese market had dropped to zero. However, this claim referred specifically to quarterly shipments, which fell to zero after export restrictions prevented Nvidia from supplying AI accelerators to China.

At present, Nvidia continues to have no direct sales of AI accelerators in the Chinese market. The Bernstein forecast, however, refers to the overall market structure rather than shipment volumes for a specific quarter.

According to Bernstein, Nvidia’s cumulative share of China’s AI accelerator market stood at approximately 66% at the end of 2024. While the analysts suggest the figure may be higher today, they do not provide updated estimates. Nevertheless, they expect this share to decline sharply in the coming years.

Role of Export Controls and Import Bans

The anticipated success of Chinese AI chip developers is closely tied not only to technological progress, but also to regulatory constraints. For example, China currently bans the import of Nvidia’s H200 accelerators, despite the fact that the United States has recently approved their export.

These restrictions are accelerating the transition toward domestically produced alternatives, strengthening the position of Chinese semiconductor companies within the local AI ecosystem.

Cloud Access as a Temporary Alternative

At the same time, Chinese companies continue to rely on Nvidia’s AI accelerators indirectly by accessing them through overseas cloud service providers. This approach allows businesses to use high-performance AI hardware without importing it directly.

Moreover, Chinese firms are already in discussions regarding access to Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin systems, even though these accelerators have not yet ente